In the wake of 2011 – a year that inspired Time magazine to crown “The Protester” as Person of the Year and one that Forbes dubbed “The Year of Uncertainty” – it’s no surprise that more people want to stick it to the proverbial Man than ever before. Perhaps in anticipation of The Man’s soaring unpopularity and a first-ever sold out Burning Man 2011, Black Rock City LLC (or BRC, organizers of the annual Burning Man festival) introduced a lottery-based ticket sale for Burning Man 2012. But rather than promoting its self-proclaimed culture of “radical inclusivity”, the lottery method left thousands of would-be Burners feeling, instead, burned by The Man.
The lottery churned out more losers than winners, divided integrated groups (“theme camps”), artists and veteran Burners who have long been the torch bearers of Burning Man tradition. True to the times, disgruntled Burners took to online forums and social media to vent, compare notes and lament the halo of uncertainty that looms over Burning Man 2012. San Francisco Bay Chronicle summed up the worst of it with an article titled: Burning Man Ticket Fiasco Creates an Uncertain Future.
As a potential first-time Burner (or birgin, in Burning Man lingo), the apocalyptic appeal of 2012 inspired an inaugural hajj to the desert – a notion that I shared with about 80,000 lottery entrants. I imagine their rationale was similar to mine: If the Maya were right, and life as we know it is trending toward a cataclysmic halt, it’s time to check the bucket list. And when it all hits the fan, where better to find yourself than wandering in 105 degree heat, butt-naked in Nevada at a week-long desert festival that includes a pyrotechnic “F---You” to The Man? After everything The Man has dealt us in 2011 (and the past decade for that matter) at least 80,000 people agree that burning him to the ground would be cathartic.
Ticketless Burners and tribal schisms are one thing, but the 2012 lottery gods also favored a high birgin to Burner ratio, leaving many to riddle: How can Burning Man be all that it has grown to be in its 25-year history if it is rife with birgins? Will it be a ringmaster-less circus with children taming the tigers? Addressing this year’s deluge of birgins, Burning Man's Communications Manager Andie Grace blogged: “You’ve arrived at a very interesting time, can you tell?...We love newcomers. However, if new Burners are the lifeblood, the existing community of collaborators, projects, and creativity is the corpus of Burning Man.”
As the lottery dust settles, uncertainty emerges as the red-headed step child of good intentions turned sour. But to say that the miscalculations of one festival’s organizing committee have single-handedly created an uncertain future is hyperbole at best. As long as turbulent uncertainty insists on showing up as the uninvited and party-fouling guest of the past decade, it might be time to give it a formal place card.
Uncertainty – the byproduct of abrupt and unwelcome change – is to now as free love and peace signs were to the 60’s. Change is often labeled positive when it means regime change, social progress, and opportunity. But when it leaks into hallowed tradition, change loses its charm. Although change has been a singular constant throughout history, its wavelengths seem to have shortened as it comes in higher potency, higher frequency, and greater intensity than ever before. The Burning Man 2012 ticket fiasco is a microcosmic sample of this all-encompassing brand of change that takes no prisoners and spares nothing in its mission to usher in a new era – or to escort us out of existence.
Dissecting the effects of change and uncertainty on a macro level can be overwhelming and virtually impossible. Fiasco aside, the circumstances surrounding Burning Man 2012 offer a finer lens for examining how our perception of uncertainty can have a greater impact than uncertainty itself:
Uncertainty is what we make of it.
Uncertainty is not a cozy word. But when the track we’ve been on has landed us in hot water, the only certainties that come from expired ideals are those that ensure the same unsustainable results. Certainty and uncertainty have been typecast as hero and villain respectively, but pervasive change has allowed them to swap roles. Certainty for certainty’s sake is no longer serving us. Adaptation requires something new, something experimental, something that might fail. While the Burning Man ticket lottery system backfired in some ways, it successfully underscored the power of perception. In hindsight, BRC organizers speculated, “We can now see that some of that happened simply because the perception of scarcity drove fear and action for all of us….Game theory won out over good wishes.” Attempts to lessen the blow of change and uncertainty can yield unintended consequences – not all of which are inherently negative. The wild card nature of uncertainty means that its power is unpredictably neutral. While fear of uncertainty can destroy and divide, tolerance can cultivate possibility.
Facing Uncertainty: Fight or Flow
Change and uncertainty are not controlled substances, and they cannot be selectively applied. We can’t route for democracy in the Middle East, accountability in Washington, and a viable planet without expecting uncomfortable changes in absolutely every area of our lives. Uncertainty can either be a force that inspires futile resistance or it can be the momentum behind a miracle. The paradox of uncertainty is like an ocean swimmer caught in a riptide: fear kicks in and instinct says, “Swim ashore!” But fighting the current can be fatal. Swimming parallel to the current – away from the certainty of dry land – is the best chance of survival. The fear of scarcity and exclusion spurred by the Burning Man ticket lottery may be the metaphorical equivalent of fighting the current. For those still hoping to get a ticket, going with the flow is the best bet. It’s not about giving up and accepting defeat – it’s about trusting that the forces of uncertainty will carry you to safer waters without a fear-induced struggle.
Mitigating Uncertainty: Embracing Structural Change, Preserving Tradition
For veteran Burners, passing the torch to the newcomers, novices and birgins will require some forfeit of creative control, a foray into the unknown, and faith in uncertainty. Change can tear at the fabric of tradition and familiarity – threatening the way it’s always been, the way it “should be”. Change and uncertainty, like the twins in The Shining, appear at the most inopportune moments. We can’t outsmart it, we can’t put a muzzle on it, and there is no such thing as Change Zero with lime. Moreover, attempts to mitigate the shock of change can have adverse effects. But where do we draw the line on what we’re willing to give up? Can Burning Man be Burning Man without its creative corpus? What can be salvaged, what is worth preserving, and how can the old compliment the new? Perhaps the answer lies in the Burning Man 2012 theme: Fertility. Fertility is the midpoint between uncertainty and certainty. It is the potential --not the promise – of a rebirth. Fertility belongs to youth, to Burners, virgins and birgins alike. Fertility also involves a necessary cycle of destruction – a literal shedding of the old in preparation for the new.
Whether you hold a golden ticket to Burning Man 2012 or not, change and uncertainty is here to stay. The power of perspective will play a pivotal role in how things shake out. In that vein, an alternative to the hyperbolic Burning Man Ticket Fiasco Creates an Uncertain Future might be Burning Man Ticket Phenomenon Reflects an Uncertain Future… and that’s not such a bad thing.
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Jonathan Fields /// Author, Uncertainty:
Rather than trying to snuff out uncertainty and fear and taking down your endeavor along with them, honor their role as signposts of innovation, and find ways to be able to embrace those seeming demons. When you learn to dance with uncertainty, the doors to genius swing open.
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